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McCain/Palin leads the race, probably

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Zogby says.

Summary:  McCain/Palin favored by somewhere between 47.6% and 51.8% of the population.
Obama/Biden is favored by somewhere between 43.8% and 48.0% of the population.

(Zogby reports 49.7%-45.9% with a 2.1% margin for error.  I just added the margin of error to the two median numbers to show the range--which is actually the correct way of interpreting a poll.)