Month: June 2006

Contributed by: filbert Tuesday, June 06 2006 @ 06:43 PM CST

From Michael Yon[*1] , in a post titled Hijacking Haditha (hat tip: Instapundit[*2] ):

To get the true context of how fairly any newspaper or media outletis treating the military in general, and this war in particular, newsconsumers should consider how long it had been since that same sourcefocused the same energy on the war. For some outlets, the last time thewar really splashed was with Abu Ghraib. But if the reality of the waror the true nature of our military men and women were to be accuratelyrepresented in column inches, newspapers would be filled with thestories of Ben Morton[*3] , Walt Gaya[*4] , Brandon Huff[*5] , Sgt Mesa[*6] , Mary Prophit[*7] , Tim Boggs[*8] , Mark Bieger[*9] , and Colonel Robert Brown[*10] ,whose soldiers fought like hell for Mosul, and won. Amidst that kind ofcoverage, the Haditha story would find its true context.

Until the facts are released by the investigating authorities, we might benefit from a new sign:

WARNING
Speculating is Strictly Forbidden —
Violators Will be Fined

If you’re not reading Michael Yon and the other warbloggers, and are just getting your Iraq information from Big Media, then you are not getting a complete story. If you have an opinion on the Haditha incident (pro- or anti-military) then you really need to reconsider your biases and assumptions, because no one outside the immediate investigation has enough information to form a meaningful opinion on the matter.

UPDATE: This applies double and triple to editorial cartoonists. The one who drew this one[*11] should be fired immediately. Why? Here’s why[*12] .

On a not completely unrelated thought, I’m coming around to the opinion that it’s time for American troops to stop patrolling in Iraq. We should remain, in smaller (but still strategically significant) numbers, in highly secure garrisons. We should support when necessary Iraqi security forces when requested, but we need to accelerate our disengagement from security operations within Iraq and reconfigure for a potential war with Iran.

Now that there is an elected Iraqi government, it is time see if the Iraqis really are capable of governing themselves as the Right prefers to think. Or, it’s time to find out if the Iraqis so politically immature that they require the heavy boot of oppression (Saddam Hussein or Islamofascist terrorists) to bully and kill enough of them to behave, as the Left seems to believe.

Let’s see who’s right and who’s wrong.

Contributed by: filbert Tuesday, June 06 2006 @ 04:56 PM CST

There has been much nonsense written and spoken about 6/6/06, most of which is spawned by an advertising campaign for a re-make of a horror movie (Hollywood IS out of ideas). 666, get it? Ooh, scary.

Little has been said or printed about a much more momentous June 6th, one which literally changed the world. The 6/6 in 1944 which sealed Nazi Germany’s fate in World War II.

Jerry Agar[*1] at KMBZ radio in Kansas City remembered the Normandy invasion on his radio show this afternoon, reading General Eisenhower’s Order of the Day for 6 June 1944.

Powerline[*2] also remembers the Longest Day.

Contributed by: filbert Monday, June 05 2006 @ 12:41 PM CST

The counsel from this quarter is still to wait until the military has finished its investigation.

Why? An article by Andrew Walden at Hawaiireporter.com[*1] (hat tip Free Republic[*2] ) illustrates why:

Marine Captain James Kimber commanded Lima Company of the 3rd Battalion, 1st Marine Regiment. The troops involved in the incident were from Kilo Company. He tells interviewers that he first learned about the shootings in February when he heard that a Time magazine reporter was asking questions about civilian deaths. Notably, Kimber says he heard nothing about a civilian massacre during weekly meetings with the Haditha City Council and talks with local leaders. “It would have been huge, there would have been no question it would have filtered down to us,” he said. “We reported no significant atmospheric change as a result of that day.” Kimber who has been relieved of his command and is back in Camp Pendleton, CA says, “I believe I was a political casualty as a result of the Haditha incident.” Some media accounts indicate that some of the dead were relatives of a Haditha City Council member.
. . .
A key point in dispute is whether the 24 who died in Haditha November 19 were gunned down, as Murtha says, “in cold blood” or were 15 civilians killed by the IED and nine hostiles then killed in a firefight as the Marines claim. The families refuse to allow an exhumation which could possibly answer this key question. According to the June 2 Washington Post, those exhumations may occur soon.
. . .
There is a possibility that Iraqi eyewitness sources’ credibility may fall apart in the event of a trial. It has happened before in similar cases. The reasons are deep rooted in tribal culture.

A British case which speaks directly to the credibility of tribal witnesses and to the Islamic tribal tradition of “blood money” collapsed November 3, 2005. On trial were seven British soldiers charged with murder stemming from a May, 2003 incident in Ferkah, Iraq. All charges were dismissed after it became clear that the key witnesses were lying in order to gain “blood money”. The BBC describes the collapse of the trial as follows:

“…it has become clear to everyone involved as the trial has progressed that the main Iraqi witnesses had colluded to exaggerate and lie about the incident.”
. . .
Are lies being told to obtain blood money payments? Some insight comes in this response to the collapse of the British trial by Stephan Holland, a Baghdad-based US contractor.

I’ve been in Iraq for about 18 months now performing construction management. It is simply not possible for me to exaggerate the massive amounts of lies we wade through every single day. There is no way – absolutely none – to determine facts from bulls*** ….

It is not even considered lying to them; it is more akin to being clever – like keeping your cards close to your chest. And they don’t just lie to westerners. They believe that appearances–saving face–are of paramount importance. They lie to each other all the time about anything in order to leverage others on a deal or manipulate an outcome of some sort or cover up some major or minor embarrassment. It’s just how they do things, period.

Wait. Watch. Listen. Do not judge before all the facts are before you. That is what civilized people do.

Contributed by: filbert Sunday, June 04 2006 @ 09:27 AM CST

Instapundit links . . . [*1]

“YOU DON’T NEED PAPERS FOR VOTING:”[*2] Just for really important things, like buying sudafed.[*3]

Heh.

Contributed by: filbert Saturday, June 03 2006 @ 04:08 PM CST

The Mid-Continent Conference is in trouble. Big trouble. This year’s departures of Chicago State and Valparaiso have left the NCAA Division I conference with seven members. The trouble arises from the NCAA’s Bylaws, specifically Bylaw 31.3.4.3:

31.3.4.3 Additional Requirements, Men’s Basketball. The member conference must include seven core institutions. For the purposes of this legislation, core refers to an institution that has been an active member of Division I the eight preceding years. Further, the continuity-of-membership requirement shall be met only if a minimum of six core institutions have conducted conference competition together in Division I the preceding five years in men’s basketball. There shall be no exception to the five-year waiting period. Any new member added to a member conference that satisfies these requirements shall be immediately eligible to represent the conference as the automatic qualifier. (Revised: 8/14/90, 12/3/90, 4/27/00, 4/29/04 effective 8/1/04)

31.3.4.3.1 Grace Period. A conference shall remain eligible for automatic qualification for two years following the date of withdrawal of the institution(s) that causes the conference’s membership to fall below seven institutions, or below six members with continuity of membership, provided the conference maintains at least six Division I members. (Adopted: 4/27/00; Revised 4/29/04 effective 8/1/04).

31.3.4.3.2 Exceptions.

(a) Prior to September 1, 2003, the eight-year core principle does not apply to an institution that was a Division I active member, provisional member, or a member in the process of reclassifying to Division I as of April 27, 2000. Such an institution would be subject to the provisions in effect in April 27, 2000. The institution may continue to be considered a core institution subsequent to September 1, 2003, even if the institution has not been an active member of Division I the eight preceding years. Revised: 11/01/01)

The Mid-Continent conference added Centenary College in the 2003-04 academic year. This means that Centenary is not yet a “core institution” for the conference. Centenary becomes a core institution for the Mid-con in 2008-09. In the meantime, the Mid-Continent is down to six core institutions–the bare minimum necessary to maintain their all-important automatic bid to the NCAA men’s basketball tournament–the largest single source of income for college athletics. If one of the six other schools in the Mid-Continent (Oakland University, Indiana U-Purdue U-Indianapolis (IUPUI), Western Illinois, Missouri-Kansas City (UMKC) Oral Roberts, or Southern Utah) departs the conference before the 2007-08 academic year, the two-year grace period would technically be triggered.

The danger to the conference is real and immediate. Valparaiso University, historically the most successful men’s basketball school in the league, jumped from the Mid-Continent to the Horizon citing the onerous travel required by the far-flung Mid-Continent. With members spread from Utah to Michigan, the Mid-Continent is among the least geographically focused conferences in NCAA Division I. So while the conference needs to expand immediately, it also must deal with geography in such a way that it loses no more members.

The Candidates

The best of all possible solutions would be to take a member from another conference in the same way that the Horizon League poached Valparaiso from the Mid-Continent Conference. Unfortunately, the Mid-Con is not a particularly strong men’s basketball conference. In 2005-06, Jeff Sagarin’s popular power rankings[*1] placed the Mid-Con at #25 of 31 Division I conferences. No Mid-Continent conference school was rated in Sagarin’s top 100. So while it is possible that the Mid-Continent might persuade the member of another Division I conference to move into the Mid-Con, it is not likely.

Fortunately for the Mid-Continent, there are several good candidate universities that are currently playing as independent Division I members. Some are in the process of transition from Division II while others are full D-I members.

Indiana-Purdue-Ft. Wayne (IPFW): IPFW is a full Division I member which has long sought Mid-Continent membership. Because it was in the process of reclassifying to Division I in 2000, the eight-year requirement does not apply to IPFW. So, only the five-year continuity-of-membership criterion would apply to IPFW.

North Dakota State (NDSU): A reclassifying institution from NCAA Division II, North Dakota State becomes a full Division I member in the 2008-09 academic year. South Dakota State and NDSU are the last two 1862 Morill Land-Grant universities in the lower 48 states to be Division I institutions. Most Land-Grants are major universities in the power conferences such as the Pac-10, Big 10, SEC, and Big XII conferences. NDSU has traditionally emphasized its football program in athletics, but fields strong teams in most of the 7 men’s and 7 women’s sports in which the Bison compete.

South Dakota State (SDSU): Almost identical in size and academics to North Dakota State, SDSU is located in a classic college town instead of in a small metropolitan area. In contrast to NDSU, SDSU’s flagship athletic program has been men’s basketball, which was a perennial participant in the Division II playoffs. Paradoxically, it is this program which has struggled the most in its transition to Division I. SDSU offers athletic programs in nine men’s and ten women’s sports.

Texas-Pan American (TPAU): Like IPFW, TPAU was a Division I institution in 2000, meaning that only the five-year continuity-of-membership criterion would apply if the Mid-Continent granted membership to TPAU.

Utah Valley State College (UVSC): In Orem, Utah just south of Salt Lake City, Utah Valley State will become championship-eligible in 2009-10, a year behind SDSU and NDSU. The main advantage of UVSC is as a travel partner for Southern Utah

Dark Horses

The North Central Conference is a Division II conference, and has historically been among the strongest at that level of competition. The departures of Northern Colorado in 2003 and of North Dakota State and South Dakota State in 2004 have resulted in significant difficulties for the NCC. The conference has been forced by these departures to bring in as associate members for football two Washington State universities, Central Washington and Western Washington. So for football, the NCC stretches from the Mississippi River to almost the Puget Sound on the Pacific Ocean. That geographic alignment is difficult enough for a Division I conference, and is even more challenging for the smaller-budget Division II NCC.

The real tipping point for the NCC will be when North Dakota departs the conference for Division I. North Dakota’s President currently has a recommendation from their Athletic Director to move all of its athletic programs to the Division I level. Certainly it has the facilities to accomplish that move, courtesy an enormous donation from a Las Vegas alumni and booster that funded a first-class arena for UND’s successful D-I men’s hockey program. UND has obtained a one-month extension of the deadline to announce an exploratory year from June 1 to July 1, 2006. Such a move seems to support the notion that the university is likely to begin the reclassification process in 2006.

Should North Dakota decide to reclassify to Division I, the remaining six NCC schools will then be forced to choose: remain in Division II and re-build the NCC, find alternate D-II conference memberships, or move up to Division I. Of the six, the only school for whom Division I is probably not a reasonable option is Augustana College, a Lutheran college with about 2,000 students and an athletic history which is on the whole average at best. The other five schools are all state institutions, three in Minnesota, one in each of South Dakota, North Dakota, and Nebraska.

Minnesota-Duluth is the newest member of the NCC, having moved over from the Division II Northern Sun conference in 2005. UMD competes at the D-I level in hockey, as do St. Cloud State, Minnesota State-Mankato, and Nebraska-Omaha in the NCC. The UMD Bulldogs are generally considered the next least likely (after Augustana) to consider a full Division I membership any time in the near future.

St. Cloud State on the other hand is rumored to be the most likely after UND to seriously consider a Division I reclassification. The Huskies have a relatively strong athletic program across the board, and have the benefit of proximity to the burgeoning Twin Cities metropolitan area of Minneapolis-St. Paul. Minnesota State-Mankato is in many ways similar to St. Cloud State, but there has been less buzz about that school’s possible Division I future than St. Cloud State. Both universities have enrollments well over 10,000 and otherwise fit the profile of the average Division I institution.

Nebraska-Omaha has seen athletic success at the Division II level, but its largest impediment to Division I success lies an hour southeast, in Lincoln. The Cornhuskers are a religion in Nebraska, to an extent that is equaled in few states. Creighton University, also in Omaha, provides additional stiff competition for the Division I fan’s attention in eastern Nebraska, making the marketing for a D-I UNO very troublesome indeed. The Mavericks have had some niche marketing success with their D-I hockey program, but it’s not at all certain that an all-sports Division I UNO would be able to extend that success across the athletic department. The more likely option should the North Central Conference implode is that UNO would seek membership in the strong Division II Mid-American Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (MIAA).

The MIAA may be the preferred option as well for the University of South Dakota, should the NCC collapse. Significantly smaller than in-state rival SDSU, USD is a classic state-supported liberal arts university, located in a very small college town in the extreme southeast corner of the state. To this date, the USD administration has held to a Division II philosophy for its athletic programs, with their emphasis going instead towards enhancing the school’s academic reputation. Still, a gradual market/mindshare loss to sister institution SDSU may eventually prod USD alumni and fans toward renewed consideration of Division I.

Back to the Mid-Con

The root of the Mid-Continent’s ongoing difficulties is the lack of a geographic “heartland.” Most successful Division I conferences have a definite geographic identity. The original AMCU conference had a definite geographic identity with institutions in the states surrounding Chicago, where the conference’s offices still reside. With the great defection of AMCU teams to the Midwestern Cities Conference (now the Horizon League) in 1994, the Mid-Continent became geographically unfocused with members stretching from the East Coast to the Midwest. Subsequently, the conference moved to the west, losing its easternmost members and gaining Oral Roberts in Oklahoma and Southern Utah. To the extent that the conference had a “heartland,” the central Great Lakes states of Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan represented the core of the conference.

The departure of Chicago State and Valparaiso from the Mid-Continent in 2006 removed Chicago from the Mid-Con map and further exacerbated the conference’s geographic dispersion problem. Now with seven members stretching from Detroit almost to Las Vegas, the Mid-Continent had lost the slim wisp of geographic coherence it once had.

Roadmap to a Coherent Conference

The Mid-Continent Conference has two problems: immediate survival, and long-term coherence. Immediate survival is addressed by ensuring that no further current members leave the conference, and by bringing in new members which complement existing members geographically and athletically. Offering Mid-Con membership to Indiana-Purdue-Ft. Wayne is about as close to a no-brainer as you’re likely to see in Division I conference memberships. This gives Oakland University and IUPUI another member on the eastern edge of the conference. Being an institution that’s exempt from the NCAA’s eight-year core membership criterion, IPFW provides much-needed stability as well.

Utah Valley State also emerges as a surprisingly reasonable addition to the Mid-Continent. Close to the rapidly growing Salt Lake City metropolitan area, UVSC provides a reasonable travel partner for Southern Utah University. The difference in cost between the flight for a single game at Southern Utah, and two games at SUU and at Utah Valley State make the Wolverines a worthy addition to the Mid-Continent.

Never before has a weak conference such as the Mid-Continent had the opportunity to bring in not one but two 1862 Morrill Land Grant universities, but that is the case in 2006. North Dakota State and South Dakota State have made no secret of their preference for the Division I-AA football-playing Big Sky Conference, but it’s not likely that either institution would turn down a Mid-Continent membership. Both institutions take their Land-Grant status very seriously, both academically and athletically. The Mid-Continent with two members who truly see as their peer institutions Kansas State, Minnesota, and Nebraska will instantly improve the conference’s overall reputation.

So, if the Mid-Con offers memberships to all four of these institutions and all four accept membership, the Mid-Con becomes an 11-member league. Since the Mid-Continent does not offer football, an odd number creates serious scheduling difficulties. Even numbers are much more desirable, as this allows the conference to designate travel partners and offer more economical road trips for the member schools.

Hello, Texas-Pan American. This long-time Division I school was dismissed from the Sun Belt Conference in 1998 following serious NCAA violations, the Broncs have wandered in the wilderness of D-I Independence since that time. But now, with the Mid-Continent in critical condition, luck may have at last smiled on the team from Edinburg. Adding UTPA and the other four schools mentioned above gives the Mid-Continent twelve members, with travel partners which are if not advantageous, at least reasonable:

Oakland and IPFW
IUPUI and Western Illinois
UMKC and Oral Roberts
Centenary and Texas-Pan American
North Dakota State and South Dakota State
Southern Utah and Utah Valley State

From Survival to Success

Taking in five new members does not solve the Mid-Continent Conference’s problems, it only postpones them. The easternmost members, Oakland and IUPUI, will increasingly have other options for conference membership as time goes on. The widely speculated split between the football-playing schools and the basketball-only schools of the Big East is expected in 2010, when the Big East’s television contract comes up for renewal. If this happens, it will ripple across the country even more significantly than the defection of Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College to the ACC and the subsequent raid of the Big East on Conference-USA remade the college conference landscape in 2004 through 2006.

North Dakota State and South Dakota State will continue to feel a pull toward an all-sports conference that offers football. The Great West Football Conference is largely administered by the Mid-Continent, but is a marginal Division I-AA football conference with only five members: NDSU, SDSU, Southern Utah of the Mid-Con, and football independents UC-Davis and Cal Poly. More GWFC members are required to provide a stable football home for NDSU, SDSU, and SUU.

The relative geographic isolation of Southern Utah, Utah Valley State, and Texas-Pan American in a 12-team Mid-Con will also pose continuing problems for the conference. Finally, while Centenary has a long and storied history as the first college west of the Mississippi River and a long-time Division I school, it is facing increasing challenges to compete at the Division I level, even in the relatively weak Mid-Continent.

The solution to the long-term survival of the Mid-Continent conference is to go north. Addition of four Division-II North Central Conference schools to the Mid-Con: North Dakota, St. Cloud State, Minnesota State-Mankato, and South Dakota, provides a solid geographic core to a revitalized Mid-Continent Conference which could eventually look to replicate the success of the Missouri Valley Conference in men’s basketball. It also stabilizes the Great West Football Conference as the football-playing affiliate of the Mid-Con.

If the Mid-Continent brought in the five schools named above in 2007-08, North Dakota and St. Cloud State in 2008-09, and Minnesota State and South Dakota in 2009-10, this is how the conference’s continuity-of-membership situation would play out this way:

2006-07: 7 members–IUPUI, Oakland, Oral Roberts, Southern Utah, UMKC, Valparaiso, Western Illinois

2007-08: 6 members–IUPUI, Oakland, Oral Roberts, SUU, UMKC, Western Illinois (two-year NCAA auto-bid grace period begins)

2008-09 to 2009-10: 7 members–Centenary, IUPUI, Oakland, Oral Roberts, SUU, UMKC, WIU

2010-11 to 2015-16: 9 members–Centenary, IPFW, IUPUI, Oakland, Oral Roberts, SUU, Texas-Pan American, UMKC, WIU

2016-17: 11 members–Centenary, IPFW, IUPUI, North Dakota St., Oakland, Oral Roberts, South Dakota St., SUU, TPAU, UMKC, WIU

2017-18: 12 members–Centenary, IPFW, IUPUI, NDSU, Oakland, Oral Roberts, SDSU, SUU, TPAU, UMKC, Utah Valley St., WIU

2020-21: 14 members–Centenary, IPFW, IUPUI, NDSU, Oakland, Oral Roberts, St. Cloud St., SDSU, SUU, TPAU, UMKC, U. of North Dakota, UVSC, WIU

2021-22: 16 members–Centenary, IPFW, IUPUI, Minnesota St., NDSU, Oakland, Oral Roberts, SCSU, SDSU, TPAU, UMKC, UNC, U. of South Dakota, UVSC, WIU

The Mid-Continent Conference’s men’s basketball NCAA Tournament automatic bid is currently at extreme risk. Under this timetable, if no further membership losses occur, that risk would begin to abate with the 2008-09 season. In 2008, the two-year grace period kicks in, carrying the conference into the 2010 season when IPFW and Texas-Pan American will have been in the conference for five years.

There are no guarantees in Division I college athletics. One thing that is certain is that the Mid-Continent, should it survive to 2021, will not have the membership shown here. Any of the colleges may follow Valparaiso and seek a conference with more amenable competitive environment or travel situation. Other schools like Central Missouri State or Washburn may test the Division I waters and find a home. But one thing is certain: much has to go right and little can go wrong for the Mid-Continent Conference in the next couple of years if it is to survive. The short-term membership problem requires the Mid-Con to add IPFW, Texas-Pan American, and Utah Valley State. A long-term survival strategy moving the heartland of the conference into the Upper Midwest could provide long-term stability for the Mid-Continent Conference.

[*1] http://www.kiva.net/%7Ejsagarin/sports/cbsend.htm

Contributed by: filbert Saturday, June 03 2006 @ 03:46 PM CST

I’ll tell you what, if I wanted to enhance the credibility of the Haditha story, extortion[*1] isn’t the path I’d choose:

BAGHDAD, Iraq – A lawyer who had several relatives among 24 Iraqisallegedly slain by U.S. Marines last fall and is representing kin ofother victims complained in a videotape Saturday that Americancompensation paid to the families was inadequate.

Contributed by: filbert Saturday, June 03 2006 @ 11:04 AM CST

Sometimes, we need to be reminded of the obvious (from Blogcritics)[*1] :

First, a military uniform was not created to give something for thewoman to ogle (though it is certainly effective at that). A uniform isa public statement to the enemy that you can shoot the person wearingit. Plain and simple, a military uniform is a full-body bull’s-eye. Whywould any government want their soldiers to wear them then? Simple. Itlet’s both sides easily figure out who the civilians are so they don’tengage them. When the terrorists don’t wear uniforms, they might beable to seek out another kill or two, but they also put their owncivilian population at risk, because it becomes impossible to tell whois a combatant and who is not.

. . .

So those who wish to sit in judgment over the Marines at Haditha(before the investigation is even completed, mind you) manage to put onthe blinders and refuse to consider how the actions of the terroristsalmost guarantee these events will happen. If these Marines did snapand break the laws of war, they will be tried and punished. It is ashame, however, that no one seems to stand up for the soldiers who haveto put up with an enemy who consistently breaks those laws. It’s anational disgrace that some in the U.S. will stand up for the actionsof those terrorists as legitimate.