Contributed by: filbert Saturday, July 03 2010 @ 12:36 PM CST
The two most important boundary conditions (inputs) to seasonal forecasts are sea surface temperatures and soil moisture. No one has shown any skill at modeling either of those, so no surprise that The Met Office Seasonal forecasts were consistently wrong.
Note that the word “skill” in this context is a term of art, with a specific, technical meaning–the easiest way of understanding the term as used in statistical modeling is that a model that has “skill” if it can provably and repeatably predicting whatever it happens to be modeling better a prediction based on than random chance–i.e. flipping a coin. Models that have skill have some usefulness in understanding what may happen. Models with no skill have no value–other than, perhaps, as political totems. WAC puts expansion plans on hold [*2]
Can You Make a Snail Forget? [*3]
Zapping Titan-Like Atmosphere With UV Rays Creates Life Precursors [*4]
Virgin Olive Oil and a Mediterranean Diet Fight Heart Disease by Changing How Our Genes Function [*5]
Honey as an Antibiotic: Scientists Identify a Secret Ingredient in Honey That Kills Bacteria [*6]
Andrew Sullivan Is Not Merely Insane, But No Longer Lucid [*7] — Inside blogball . . .
Feathered Friends: Ostriches Provide Clues to Dinosaur Movement [*8]
Human-Made Global Warming Started With Ancient Hunters [*9] — *snort* *chortle* *snicker* . . . “correlation is not causation” . . .
More Fish Than Thought May Thrive in the Ocean’s Depths, Study Suggests [*10]
Cartoon: The 24 Types of Libertarian [*11] — I could personally–possibly–fit several of the depicted categories. Except it’s not that simple, is it? (heh!)
Lights Out: Cruise Ship Loses Power at Sea [*12] — We were on a cruise once when this happened–but it was still daylight, and a calm ocean, luckily . . .
Delta sells two regional airlines, wants to focus on mainline flying [*13]
Too much fructose could raise your blood pressure [*14]
NASA delays shuttle finale until 2011 [*15]
De Pasquale’s Dozen — TV’s Andy Levy [*16] — I do believe he’s an odd duck . . . we need more odd ducks . . .
Crews Accidentally Chop Down Dan Quisenberry Memorial [*17] — Oops . . .
Stereotyping People by Their Favorite Author [*18] — Apparently, I really like monkeys. Although Roger Zelazny did not make her list.